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These data correspond to the article “Deep Nitrogen Fluxes and Sources Constrained by Arc Lava Phenocrysts” by Hudak et al. submitted to Geophysical Research Letters. Table S1 includes N-He-Ar data for FIs in phenocrysts from mafic are lavas and tephras. Table S2 contains the corrected N2/3He data used for volcanic arc N flux calculations and the arc-averaged mean N arc flux. Table S3 summarizes previous literature estimates of N fluxes and the data used for those calculations. Table S4 provides the N concentrations, He concentrations, N isotope compositions of the mantle, sediments, and altered oceanic crust, as well as sediment thicknesses. Finally, Table S5 gives information about the sources of the mineral separates used for these analyses. 

Leaf toughness is an important functional trait that confers resistance to herbivory and mechanical damage. We sought to determine how species composition, climate, seasonality, and nutrient availability influence leaf toughness in two types of tundra in northern Alaska. We measured leaf toughness as force to punch for 11 species of Arctic plants in tussock tundra and dry heath tundra at 17 sites distributed along a latitudinal gradient. Rubus chamaemorus L. and the graminoids occupied opposite ends of the leaf toughness spectrum, with Rubus chamaemorus requiring the least force to punch, whereas one of the graminoids, Eriophorum vaginatum L., required the most. Leaf toughness increased with mean summer temperature for Eriophorum vaginatum and Betula nana L., whereas it declined with warmer temperatures for the other species. Toughness of mature leaves of Eriophorum vaginatum did not vary through the growing season but declined significantly after senescence. Application of N and P fertilizer in an experimental site decreased leaf toughness in three species but had no effect on four others. Leaf toughness of four out of five species in dry heath was greater than for the same species in tussock tundra, but there was no difference in community-weighted mean toughness between tussock tundra and dry heath. 

Abstract Accurate forecasts can enable more effective public health responses during seasonal influenza epidemics. For the 2021–22 and 2022–23 influenza seasons, 26 forecasting teams provided national and jurisdiction-specific probabilistic predictions of weekly confirmed influenza hospital admissions for one-to-four weeks ahead. Forecast skill is evaluated using the Weighted Interval Score (WIS), relative WIS, and coverage. Six out of 23 models outperform the baseline model across forecast weeks and locations in 2021–22 and 12 out of 18 models in 2022–23. Averaging across all forecast targets, the FluSight ensemble is the 2^ndmost accurate model measured by WIS in 2021–22 and the 5^thmost accurate in the 2022–23 season. Forecast skill and 95% coverage for the FluSight ensemble and most component models degrade over longer forecast horizons. In this work we demonstrate that while the FluSight ensemble was a robust predictor, even ensembles face challenges during periods of rapid change. 

It is well established that mantle plumes are the main conduits for upwelling geochemically enriched material from Earth's deep interior. The fashion and extent to which lateral flow processes at shallow depths may disperse enriched mantle material far (>1,000 km) from vertical plume conduits, however, remain poorly constrained. Here, we report He and C isotope data from 65 hydrothermal fluids from the southern Central America Margin (CAM) which reveal strikingly high 3 He/ 4 He (up to 8.9R A ) in low-temperature (≤50 °C) geothermal springs of central Panama that are not associated with active volcanism. Following radiogenic correction, these data imply a mantle source 3 He/ 4 He >10.3R A (and potentially up to 26R A , similar to Galápagos hotspot lavas) markedly greater than the upper mantle range (8 ± 1R A ). Lava geochemistry (Pb isotopes, Nb/U, and Ce/Pb) and geophysical constraints show that high 3 He/ 4 He values in central Panama are likely derived from the infiltration of a Galápagos plume–like mantle through a slab window that opened ∼8 Mya. Two potential transport mechanisms can explain the connection between the Galápagos plume and the slab window: 1) sublithospheric transport of Galápagos plume material channeled by lithosphere thinning along the Panama Fracture Zone or 2) active upwelling of Galápagos plume material blown by a “mantle wind” toward the CAM. We present a model of global mantle flow that supports the second mechanism, whereby most of the eastward transport of Galápagos plume material occurs in the shallow asthenosphere. These findings underscore the potential for lateral mantle flow to transport mantle geochemical heterogeneities thousands of kilometers away from plume conduits. 

Abstract Academic researchers, government agencies, industry groups, and individuals have produced forecasts at an unprecedented scale during the COVID-19 pandemic. To leverage these forecasts, the United States Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC) partnered with an academic research lab at the University of Massachusetts Amherst to create the US COVID-19 Forecast Hub. Launched in April 2020, the Forecast Hub is a dataset with point and probabilistic forecasts of incident cases, incident hospitalizations, incident deaths, and cumulative deaths due to COVID-19 at county, state, and national, levels in the United States. Included forecasts represent a variety of modeling approaches, data sources, and assumptions regarding the spread of COVID-19. The goal of this dataset is to establish a standardized and comparable set of short-term forecasts from modeling teams. These data can be used to develop ensemble models, communicate forecasts to the public, create visualizations, compare models, and inform policies regarding COVID-19 mitigation. These open-source data are available via download from GitHub, through an online API, and through R packages.